1 – Utopia Trivia Correction
Last week’s 007 Edition of TheMessage featured the following trivia question: “What was the Genesis Block’s Reward Per Thread?”
The answer given, 0.0128 CRP, was in fact the RPT of the first publically available Block to be mined, but not that of the Genesis Block. In fact, the Genesis Block and the next 5 blocks after had a temporarily inflated RPT of 250 CRP in order to help the team behind Utopia secure key uNS records (e.g. “UTOPIA” & “1984”) as well as be able to help developers secure uNS records for the benefit of the ecosystem and compensate supporters in the transition from Beta to Mainnet.
2 – A Deeper Look Inside The Rabbit Hole of Utopia – PART V
In Part IV we reviewed the introduction of Bitcoin and the tremendous potential that exists in applying P2P technology to money itself. Bitcoin’s creation was a kind of revelation of that potential, but unfortunately its evolution over the past 11 years has been the tragic story of a revolution interrupted. Just as the internet before it was the opening of untold potential in terms of connecting people and sharing ideas, it too eventually devolved into a surveillance landscape ripe for corporate and government exploitation. What went wrong?
The majority of Bitcoin users today would be surprised to learn what Satoshi Nakamoto had envisioned for Bitcoin, but peering into the original code gives us insight into Nakamoto’s dreams. What if I told you that P2P messaging, a P2P marketplace and even P2P gaming were part of Bitcoin’s unrealized potential? The hard truth that many users today have difficulty accepting is that the Bitcoin we have today is a crippled version of what Bitcoin could have been and what Bitcoin was supposed to have become. The history of Bitcoin and its development is not a pleasant tale to unweave, but its a story similar to that of the internet itself. Vested interests and greed have robbed humanity of tremendous benefits and remarkable potential that must now be harvested anew.
In 2013 a group of cryptography and networking technology enthusiasts began working on a project in secret designed to unlock the full potential of Peer-to-Peer technology on the internet and along with it, the evolution of money itself. The 1984 Group sought to create a unified and fully independent ecosystem that offered many of the benefits of the modern internet without the harms that had come to infiltrate it. They were motivated by the desire to protect the privacy of communication and the freedom of self-expression, essential human rights as they saw them. In so doing, they sought to revolutionize the internet itself. Their dedicated and principled work culminated in the release of the Utopia P2P Ecosystem at the end of 2019.
In Utopia, people have a genuinely decentralized network hosted by their peers that affords them many of the modern conveniences of the internet but in a fully encrypted and private format. New users generate a public key which they can share with others for private communication or choose to remain fully anonymous and chat publicly. Users can register uNS records to host independent self-hosted websites. Users can create and join chat forums or channels on any topic they choose. Users can play games across this same network with each other. Users can invoice and transact in a native, fully integrated and private cryptocurrency, Crypton (CRP) to conduct commerce with anyone privately. Content, ideas, value can now be shared in a censorship-resistant, surveillance-free form that fully realizes the potential of the Internet and Bitcoin in ways only dreamed about in years past.
3 – Crypton (CRP) Market Analysis
Conducting a market analysis on a relatively new cryptocurrency, less than 4 months after launch, that has not yet started trading on an established exchange might initially appear to be an impossible task. However, one approach that may prove useful in providing us with insight at this early stage is to compare Crypton with another, better established cryptocurrency that has a number of parallels with CRP. One such coin is Grin, based on mimblewimble blockchain technology. Grin is similar to Crypton in 3 key aspects:
Privacy – Both GRIN and CRP aim to be fully private cryptocurrencies with opaque balances and untraceable transaction records
Emission – GRIN has a linear rate of emission which does not decline (60/min), CRP has a similar emission structure in that it remains non-zero indefinitely, but adjustable based on economic conditions for optimal liquidity and stability
Distribution – Both GRIN and CRP are distributed in a public and fair (but private) fashion without any portion being segregated to benefit a select few (e.g. developers, investors, etc.), with neither having conducted an ICO
These 3 key areas make Grin an ideal coin as a basis for comparison to Crypton, especially since Grin was released just over one year ago. Important areas where Crypton differs from Grin will be highlighted in the portion of the analysis covering the projection over the next year.
Grin was released in January of 2019 and has a current circulating supply of just over 35,400,000 coins. Its market price as of March 2nd 2020 is approximately $1.01 USD, giving it a market capitalization of almost $36,000,000 USD equivalent. Grin is currently traded on just two established exchanges, Poloniex and KuCoin. Grin has received relatively positive coverage in the cryptocurrency media and is seen as having great future potential as a privacy coin. Development has been slow but steady, given that all work is funded by the community and not a for-profit entity.
Crypton was released in November of 2019 as part of the Utopia P2P ecosystem. The total mined CRP as of March 2nd 2020 is approximately 585,000. In order to estimate current circulating supply, we must account for the amount of CRP that has been burned, or consumed, in the ecosystem. CRP can be consumed in a variety of ways including the creation of uNS records, cards and uVouchers as well as through normal transfers. In the first 4 months of the ecosystem, the overwhelming majority of consumed CRP has been from the registration of uNS records. Given the creation of almost 4,000 uNS records, with the vast majority of those costing 10 CRP, a few costing 1024 CRP and at least one costing 4,096 CRP, we have an estimated total of consumed CRP of approximately 50,000. This gives us a circulating supply of approximately 535,000 CRP.
Considering only the utility dimension of a privacy coin and given the early stage of development and exposure of Utopia and Crypton, we must be very conservative in our comparison. Let us estimate a market capitalization of just 5% or 1/20 that of Grin. This would give us a market capitalization expectation of $1,800,000. Dividing the projected market cap by the circulating supply, we arrive at an expected market price of $3.36.
Now let us consider the important ways in which Crypton is different from Grin. Ultimately, Grin’s utility is exclusively linked to that of being a privacy coin. No matter how far along its development gets, it will not deliver more than on this promise of utility. In this domain, there are numerous competitors including Monero, Beam and a number of others. Whereas Crypton offers utility far beyond that of a simple but effective privacy coin. CRP is the exclusive and fully integrated native cryptocurrency of the Utopia P2P ecosystem, which is a fully secure and private version of the internet itself. This means that as time goes on and the ecosystem develops, CRP will offer utility that has no competitors. Because we can rationally presume that privacy will continue to be exploited on the internet as corporations seek to monetize people’s personal information, it can therefore be presumed that an ecosystem like Utopia will gain wider adoption and demand for CRP will only increase over time.
In March of 2021, Grin is expected to have a circulating supply of approximately 67,000,000 coins, and with CRP’s block reward cap confirmed at 144 CRP per 15 minute block and this cap on track to be reached within 2 weeks, we can project a circulating supply of approximately 5,500,000 one year from today. Under the assumption of $1 Grin, we can see that 25% of Grin’s market cap would result in a CRP price in excess of $3, and as CRP’s market cap approaches that of Grin, we approach a price projection in excess of $12 for Crypton.
Ultimately, economics dictates that when there are 2 products in the market offering very similar utility but one is differentiated because it offers additional utility that is exclusive to it, the differentiated product (in our case, currency) will eventually come to dominate the market. Monero, Grin, Beam and other privacy coins are far more similar to each other than they are different. Yes, they feature different blockchain technologies, different usability enhancements, etc., but ultimately the underlying utility is undifferentiated. The introduction of Crypton to the market of private cryptocurrencies changes the entire landscape because of the Utopia ecosystem itself. Long term value is generated because of the anticipated demand for a P2P ecosystem like Utopia. Built-in encrypted mail, instant messaging, chat forums, content sharing and websites that are inherently censorship resistant is an undeniable value proposition that will propel Crypton to dominate the field of private cryptocurrencies in the coming years. With the market capitalization of private cryptocurrencies expected to be in the billions of USD equivalent (a currency itself whose days are numbered) in the next few years and the circulating supply of CRP expected to increase by only a few million every year, it is entirely rational to expect a CRP value hundreds of times its current value over the next 5-10 years.
4 – TheMarket Update
Regardless of what any analysis may conclude about the expected or projected value of an asset, in the absence of an established, low-friction, high-volume exchange, investors in CRP face difficulty in transacting with suppliers and this was highlighted at TheMarket’s most recent Once-Per-Month special selling price Saturday on February 29th in which no buyers came forward at the price of $1.50/CRP. Until CRP begins trading at an established exchange or Utopia receives greater exposure, TheMerchant will make available his entire public stock of CRP for sale at a temporarily reduced price of $1.00/CRP at TheMarket.
5 – Personal Note from The Publisher
Here’s where to find the “Rabbit Hole” that is Utopia for those who may be reading on the surveillance landscape of the clearnet: https://u.is
TheMerchant Public Key: 0093DEFD354D78D4F035CF04A935DD211A9765B8779C68D30A9DA0B3EB06554F
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